The short answer is yes, absolutely Overwatch can fail. It has happened before, and it will happen again. It might seem unlikely with how much money Blizzard has poured into the Overwatch League, but it has happened before. The esports that have risen to huge prominence, or the ones like Rocket League that are on the rise, have grown their audiences organically.

Riot and Valve built League of Legends and Dota 2 on the backs of Dota, a game which swept across all of Europe and enjoyed being the king of underground, competitive gaming. By the time these companies started to put money into the esports side, the fans were already far ahead of them. The same is true for CS:GO, a game which also carries the legacy of its predecessor and which was responding to, not creating, a demand for an esports scene. The point being that money and marketing can’t account for everything Blizzard will need to make it work.

Though esports are now a huge industry – they are expected to reach an audience of almost 400 million this year – the road to esports stardom is not for every title. Unlike traditional sports, an esport is a part of a constantly evolving and changing world. Only a select few games survive the rollover of graphics, mechanics, and fads that riddle gaming. Even Starcraft 2, the successor to the largest originator of professional esports, hit massively declining numbers and shut down its South Korean League after 14 years of operation. Though Starcraft had had huge success, it simply wasn’t the same story for Starcraft 2, which fans felt was different enough.

The fact is, the esports that fans currently flock to are part of a conscious decision to find them entertaining on a competitive scale. Fighting games, in theory, would make great esports, but they haven’t found a way to appeal to the masses. Speaking at this year’s Twitchcon, Geoff Robinson – a former pro Starcraft player – said that he wasn’t convinced Overwatch was going to make it, especially since “esports is riddled with the corpses of imitators.”

In just the past few years, we have seen both Battleborn and Lawbreakers marketed as esport titles that failed miserably in that regard. Though very different, Battleborn attempted to grasp hold of the humor and graphical appeal of another Gearbox title – Borderlands – and leverage it into the timeless quality that could make it a lasting esport. Battleborn never took off, and neither did Lawbreakers, a game that tried to ride a nostalgia wave inspired by arena shooters like Quake. Even as far back as 2001, titles like Alien vs Predator 2 were trying and failing to make a competitive scene. Most of them only vaguely peeked on the radar of fans, so most gamers don’t even recall there ever being a competitive league for titles like Halo or Gears of War.

Overwatch beats all these games in one key area – players. While their competitive scene is largely untested, they do have the player base to make a go of it. Unfortunately, Blizzard hasn’t fared so well with esports. As mentioned, Starcraft 2 bled numbers for a long time, and no one was much interested in the competitive side of World of Warcraft or Heroes of the Storm. Those games also have fairly large user bases, so a base is just a starting point, not a guarantee. What Blizzard really has to do is secure a fanbase and an audience that connect with Overwatch.

Until Blizzard has shown they have the interest of fans, they very well could go down as having the most expensive esports failure of all time.