With PUBG smashing Steam records left and right and H1Z1 having just finished holding their invitational at Twitchcon, both games are gearing up towards an entry into esports, but the question remains whether or not they can. While many fans just assume success based on the player sizes for these games, this is also an environment where even Overwatch may not succeed, and that is after spending well over $100 million.

The biggest concern for battle royales is in skill and pacing. To have a professional scene, there has to be a distinct difference between the skills of players but also in how they factor into gameplay. H1Z1’s Fight for the Crown addressed this issue in April by splitting professionals into squad, but it only partially alleviated the fact that a very legitimate strategy in battle royales is to simply hide, which isn’t hugely interesting for the fans. And while strategy does come into play with how players engage with one another in lobbing grenades and hiding for cover, whether or not a player even runs into enemies or gets good weapons is largely luck based.

While watching a streamer luck into or out of certain gear and drops is exciting – on much the same level that watching loot crate opening is – very few people would be thrilled to see their favorite team or player taken down out of sheer luck and nothing else. Since players don’t know where each other are, where they were dropped, or what gear they have, the strategic elements of battle royale’s are severely diminished, which makes caution a key factor in success. However, caution can make for a very, very boring tournament.

Even with nearly twenty players still on the map, the H1Z1 invitational stalled out for almost 10 minutes without a single kill and with the action elements boiling down to a single car chase between two players while the other players roamed the map or camped in corners. This is a similar sequence that plays out time and again on PUBG streams. Some players on the map might be in heavy fire fights while others roam for several minutes just collecting loot or searching for cars. The caution aspect of both games also leads to lots of slow creeping, crawling through brush, and camping.

CS:GO, by comparison, is a nonstop action-fest. The maps are designed for strategy and squad mechanics, allowing for setting up traps, ambushes, and assaults with interesting dynamics. While PUBG does offer the player choices of where to fall – Military, School, Rozhok – it still doesn’t have the same depth of strategy. Perhaps if it was more like League of Legends, wherein players get to choose certain locations in a best of series (red side or blue side for League), this would add some more strategy to what is often a crapshoot, and the time spent before the match starts could become more strategic by choosing which locations can’t be dropped into.

But what Battle Royales do have going for them, more so than perhaps any other watching experience, are the peaks. Because of the relative slowness of the game, when it gets exciting, it gets very exciting. It is similar, once again, to loot crates. Excitement of these games often becomes in seeing what a player can find more than who they can kill, and every piece of equipment they gather – or don’t – builds up expectations towards the final battle that will inevitably come.

The slower pacing and random elements of battle royales don’t necessarily mean that they can’t translate into an esport, but it is sort of unexplored territory. Most sports are predicated on structure – the half-time game, the seventh inning stretch, etc. – whereas battle royales are based on their lack of structure. It’s what makes them fun, but what also makes them such a huge risk as an esport. Ultimately, battle royales will either completely change the scene, or be forced to change to fit it. For now, these games might better spend their time letting the communities grow organically. Trying to force an esport would cost millions of dollars these companies can’t spare – not everyone is Riot or Blizzard – and could tank any future the games already have. For now though, battle royales are a fun kid brother, but they aren’t ready yet for the big time.